Weather may never be 100% predictable, but understanding the bigger patterns can help farmers make smarter decisions. Looking ahead to 2026, forecasts suggest a season filled with both opportunity and risk – especially when it comes to rainfall.
At Grow, we believe that better information leads to better planning. Here’s what the 2026 weather outlook could mean for Africa’s farms.
Understanding the Big Weather Picture
One of the biggest drivers of weather across Africa is something called ENSO. In simple terms, it’s a system that shifts between wetter and drier periods.
El Niño usually brings drier conditions to southern Africa, while La Niña is linked to higher rainfall. When conditions are neutral, weather tends to be closer to average.
For the 2025/2026 season, weather experts are seeing signs of La Niña continuing into early 2026. This suggests that many parts of southern and central Africa could receive more rain than usual during the main growing months. Later in the season, rainfall may ease off and return to more normal levels.
Rainfall Expectations for Early 2026
Rainfall is expected to remain normal to above normal across many key farming regions up until March 2026. This is good news for crops such as maize, sorghum and groundnuts, especially in areas like South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique.
Some northern regions may see less rain as the season progresses, which means farmers in those areas should be alert for possible dry spells later in the year.
Warmer Temperatures Still Expected
Even with good rainfall, temperatures are forecast to stay warmer than average in most regions. Warmer conditions can cause moisture to evaporate faster from the soil and plants, meaning crops may grow quicker but also lose water faster.
This makes careful water management even more important, especially when rains slow down later in the season.
What This Means on the Ground
Early rains up to December 2025 likely helped build soil moisture and supported planting. Continued rainfall into early 2026 should help crops develop and fill grain properly, which is encouraging for yields.
However, more rain doesn’t always mean better results. Heavy rainfall can lead to flooding, waterlogged fields, soil erosion and delays in harvesting. Farmers working in low-lying areas or regions with poor drainage should stay especially alert.
Storms and Cyclone Awareness
The cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean runs from November 2025 to April 2026 and overlaps with the rainy season. These storms can bring heavy rain and strong winds, particularly to coastal and nearby regions.
Farmers in affected areas should stay informed through local weather alerts and be ready to act quickly if warnings are issued.
Planning Ahead for a Smarter Season
Seasonal forecasts provide a useful guide, but they work best when combined with local knowledge. Watching daily and weekly weather updates, monitoring fields closely and adjusting planting or harvesting times can make a big difference.
The 2025/2026 season looks cautiously positive for many African farmers, with good rainfall offering strong potential for growth. At the same time, preparation for heavy rain, flooding and changing conditions later in the season will be key.